Structural Modelling and Forecasting
PrintStructural Modelling and Forecasting
Purpose of the seminar
The seminar gives an insight on how macroeconomic modelling and forecasting process works in a central bank. Participants will understand the role of structural and macro-econometric models in forecasting and supporting monetary policy decisions. The development of the macroeconomic forecasting and analyses tools at the MNB will be presented, highlighting the lessons learned during changing times. The seminar emphasizes that, with the achievement of the inflation target, aspects pointing in the direction of longer-term growth came to the fore. Alongside the discussion of the differences in methods of short- and medium-term forecasting, the seminar provides a deeper understanding of the importance of the economic structure through sectoral relations. In addition, sustainability aspects also come to the fore. In this regard, the MNB’s sustainable GDP concept will be presented. Participants are provided with the opportunity to exchange views on the tools currently in use at their central banks. In the final seminar, MNB experts will provide an insight into micro data analyses with heterogeneous actors. In such analyses, microfounded inferences can be drawn, with which a deeper level of understanding and better designed policy measures can be achieved. Within the firm distribution, some actors or distinct groups can play a significant role in the development of an aggregate. The impact of innovative enterprises on growth and their role in the economy of the future can undoubtedly affect the efficient functioning of open economies and even more so in small countries. On micro and mezo levels, distinct analyses could be carried out that are to support economic modelling and decision making substantially.
Contents/ Main topics to be discussed
- Multi-model approaching
- Differences between modelling short and medium run
- Economic structure and sectoral relations
- Role of sustainability
- Understanding the importance of disaggregated analyses
- Growth potentials in SME sector
- Practical applicability and applied researches
Target group
- Staff working in statistic and modelling fields with data analysis background
- Economists and junior economists working on macroeconomic forecasting (Working with mainly MATLAB)
- Staff involved in implementing survey standards analysis techniques and managing large datasets.