In the September issue of our scientific journal, we are launching a new section dealing with the history of economics and economic theory entitled ”From the past to the future“. The Future Vision column examines the role of the start-up ecosystem in the economy. The published studies discuss inflation shocks, European yield curves, factors shaping cash holding, value creation in bankrobotics and an attempt at estimating the energy demand of residential properties. The feature articles present the MNB’s 2030 monetary strategy and the German social market economy.
In their essay, András Havas, Levente Jánoskuti, Márta Matécsa, Tamás Vecsernyés and Kata Hörcsig review the role of start-up ecosystems in the economy, the Hungarian situation and the typical characteristics of internationally successful ecosystems. The development of the start-up ecosystem can also be a breaking point in talent retention and digitalisation: although Hungary has good foundations for building a strong start-up ecosystem that dynamises the economy, it still lags behind its European and regional competitors in this area. The authors identify seven areas that promise a stronger start-up sector, accelerating digital transformation, growing employment and state revenues.
The recent period of global inflation has posed a major challenge for the world’s central banks. A key question has been whether the shocks of recent years will lead to temporary or permanent inflationary pressures. The paper by Balázs Spéder and Balázs Vonnák summarises the experience of past inflation shocks. Using a database of data from 201 countries between 1970 and 2022, the authors examine the historical characteristics of high inflation and the typical macroeconomic environment in which rapid and pronounced disinflation has occurred. The authors also show that in many cases, persistently high inflation has been broken without a slowdown in the real economy.
The evolution of business cycles is of fundamental importance for all economic agents. The predictability of possible recessions depends to a large extent on the underlying causes, and although economic models cannot account for exogenous factors such as the coronavirus epidemic, some economic indicators perform reasonably well in predicting economic downturns. In their study, Marcell Péter Granát, Gábor Neszveda and Dorottya Szabó investigate the ability of yield spreads to predict recessions in some European countries.
Although the past two decades have witnessed a strong growth of electronic payments worldwide, an expansion of the cash stock was also observed, with the exception of the Scandinavian countries. The study by Anikó Bódi-Schubert and Ildikó Kazimir Ritzlné examines this contradiction known as the ”cash paradox“ through the cash holding ratio of the forint and the euro. Their analysis proves that, in addition to traditional yield and wealth variables, the institutional environment, uncertainty, and price changes in financial services also affect the evolution of cash demand. One of the main messages of the study is that the large increase in uncertainty caused a sharp increase in the cash holding ratio between 2000 and 2022.
Alexandra Prisznyák proposes the establishment of the concept and research area of banking robotics as a sub-segment of FinTech, which addresses AI and related innovative technologies in a holistic view within the strict regulatory environment of the banking sector. Her aim is to clarify the concept of banking robotics technologies and analyse their application in banking. She recommends the introduction of a public AI incidence database, mandatory disclosure of investments in banking robotics and a peer-to-peer chain-based risk classification of AI systems, reducing the potential for the proliferation of AI-washing (mislabelling of AI) in the banking sector.
According to the EU taxonomy, ”Purchase and Ownership of Buildings“ activity can be considered sustainable if, among other things, a building constructed before 31 December 2020 has at least a category A energy certification or is in the top 15% of the building stock at national or regional level. The latter requires an estimate of the energetic characteristics of the total housing stock. In their study, Mónika Bene, Antal Ertl, Áron Horváth, Gergely Mónus and Judit Székely model the energy performance of the Hungarian housing stock by linking three databases and estimate the energy performance of the housing stock by region and type of dwelling.
In their feature article, Vivien Deák and Kristóf Takács give an insight into a new vision of the future by presenting the electronic payment strategy of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank. Continuous monitoring of 18 indicators up to 2030 will help the development of payment flows and the achievement of a ratio of 60 per cent, or two-thirds if targeted measures are taken, of electronic payments in the economy.
In his feature article, Bence Varga describes the early days of the German social market economy and draws conclusions that can be applied today. The main pillars of the social market economy, including social character, social responsibility and sustainability, should in any case be strengthened.
In addition to the above, the September issue of the Financial and Economic Review includes two book reviews and two conference reports.
The publication can be viewed on the website of our Journal:
https://en-hitelintezetiszemle.mnb.hu/
We wish you a very pleasant reading.
Magyar Nemzeti Bank