Budapest, 31 March 2025 – As of 1 July 2025, the MNB has set the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) rate applicable to domestic exposures at the 1 percent level required in a neutral risk environment, which will not change as of 1 April 2026.
In July 2024, the MNB decided to adopt a new framework, the so called positive neutral CCyB-rate determination, joining the spreading European practice. In case of applying such a capital buffer strategy, the authorities set a positive CCyB-rate even in times of no credit overheatedness risks, provided that the banks’ profitability and capital position allow it. This more precautionary requirement helps macroprudential policy to counterbalance unpredictable systemic shocks, reduces the risk of late buffer rate build-up stemming from uncertainty in the measurement of cyclical risks, and increases the room for manoeuvre in macroprudential crisis management. This supports banks’ contribution to sustainable growth in the long term. According to a joint report of the ECB and the ESRB, in recent years a growing number of European countries have switched to the positive neutral application of the CCyB: by the end of 2024, 17 EEA member states, including Hungary, had already applied this or a similar early-activation framework.
As part of the domestic application, the MNB has set a positive neutral CCyB rate of 1 percent for domestic exposures in a neutral risk environment that is not yet characterized by excessive cyclical risk, as of 1 July 2025. The MNB set the 1 percent positive neutral CCyB rate based on the practice of EEA member states and on the impairment losses data of the 2008-09 crisis.
Currently, the Cyclical Systemic Risk Index (CSRI) of the MNB, which summarizes the main indicators of the Cyclical Systemic Risk Map (CSRM), indicates a low, neutral level of risks. The low level of risks is also confirmed by the CSRM indicator set. Low risk is visible in most monitored categories, while the categories of harmful competition between credit institutions and overvaluation of investment assets indicate a slightly elevated level of risks. This is mainly related to the development of overvaluation in the housing market and the high profitability of the banking system in the elevated interest rate environment, but does not indicate an excessive cyclical systemic risks requiring direct intervention. Looking ahead, a gradual improvement in the macroeconomic environment, an increase in real wages, the revival of credit and housing markets, and the increasing search for yield by investors among households are likely to lead to a gradual increase in cyclical systemic risks.
Given the low, essentially stagnant level of cyclical financial systemic risks, it is not justified to set a CCyB rate that exceeds the 1 percent positive neutral CCyB rate, which is applicable in a neutral risk environment, effective from 1 July 2025. Accordingly, the MNB will maintain the 1 percent CCyB rate applicable from 1 July 2025 as of 1 April 2026.
The build-up and maintenance of the CCyB requirement according to the previously announced schedule does not limit the lending capacity of banks due to the robust capital position and outstanding profitability of the banking system. In excess of the 1 percent CCyB requirement to be maintained by banks, the banking system will still have a free capital buffer which is sufficient to provide tens of trillions of forints additional lending.
The MNB determines the applicable CCyB rate on a quarterly basis, considering the positive neutral CCyB rate, the development of cyclical systemic risks arising from credit market overheatedness and all other relevant factors.
Information on the countercyclical capital buffer and other information related to its operation
Magyar Nemzeti Bank