We examine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens by exploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt during Hungary’s late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens leads to higher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to a worse local recession, driven by employment losses at non-exporting firms, and negative spillover effects on nearby borrowers without foreign currency debt. The estimates translate into a multiplier on higher debt service of 1.67. The impact of debt revaluation is particularly severe when foreign currency debt is concentrated on household, rather than firm, balance sheets.
Jel codes: E2, E3, G2, F3, D12.
Keywords: household debt, foreign currency debt, currency crisis, financial crisis, business cycles.